Five reasons not to recall Arnold Schwarzenegger

I'm coming around to the anti-recall-Arnold perspective.

This page of mine is now one of the more popular destinations for recall-Arnold fury. The emails have been pouring in at around ten per hour--each one volunteering time and/or money to the effort (except the one that said, "When I saw your website, I thought the same thing I thought when I saw Jennifer Lopez the first time: 'What an ass!'"). In about 12 hours, more than 800 people have taken the poll.

That page has evolved over time. At first, about a month and a half ago, it was a one-off joke designed to illustrate the chaotic future that awaited California if it voted for the recall. The idea being: If Darrell Issa and $1.7M could do it, almost anyone could do it. Maybe even I, a disgruntled former candidate.

At the time, it was a valid point to make, I think. Davis had been chosen by the people of California in a legitimate election in November 2002. He had broken no laws. The recall was simply taking advantage of an unpopular governor at a time when Davis had to make some tough decisions (the same sort of decisions that Schwarzenegger refused to preview for us in his own campaign). And the rules of the recall meant that some bizarre results were possible. The recall was a bad idea.

However, that fact, in and of itself, does not mean we should recall the incoming governor. While I do feel that Arnold Schwarzenegger and a pliant media created a governership that could not have happened under the normal election conditions, there is a strong case to be made against progressives' leading a recall drive now:

1. HE WON. It looks like Arnold Schwarzenegger won more than 48% of the vote. By comparison, Gray Davis won 47.4% in November 2002. Schwarzenegger also won (slightly) more votes than there were "no" votes on the recall. The nightmare scenario of Davis' winning 49% on the recall question but being replaced by a candidate with only 15% of the vote has not transpired. The will of California voters is pretty clear: They want Arnold Schwarzenegger to hold the office of governor.

2. A RECALL IS LIKELY TO FAIL. Gray Davis' approval rating was as low as 22% this year. He's a slimy, pay-to-play politician who earned the anger of Californians over a long period. He was vulnerable to this recall. Schwarzenegger is not likely to be in such a fix by March 2. Do California progressives really want to be blamed for an unpopular recall effort?

3. WE HAVE BETTER THINGS TO DO, AND THEY NEED DOING. Democratic National Commitee chair Terry McAuliffe said about the recall, "People are worried about their jobs, their health insurance, and they are taking it out on Gray Davis, and they will take it out on George Bush, too." A Recall Arnold movement is not going to help to defeat George W. Bush. It will divide us at a time when we need unity and distract attention when we need it focused like a laser on President Bush's failures and the eventual Democratic candidate's solutions.

4. WE DON'T NEED TO SUBVERT THE PROCESS. The recall of Davis is not a repudiation of progressive ideas or the Democratic Party. Only conservative blowhards see it that way. Sentiment nationally and locally is against Bush and against the Republican agenda. The recall was about Davis. In a slightly altered universe, Schwarzenegger possibly could have run as a Democrat with the same result (it simply would have been more embarrassing). The Republicans have resorted to subverting the normal process in Florida, Texas and California precisely because they don't have a majority of people behind their backward agenda. The big picture matters: On most of the important issues, Democrats are in alignment with the majority. Using the normal democratic process--and keeping the focus on the issues--is the right thing both morally and strategically.

5. DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BE LIKE THEM? I'm angry. I've been angry since November 2000. And I get angrier every day, because every day offers a new reason for it. But anger is an ugly emotion, and it can do ugly things. Our opponents can also use our anger to their advantage. They can make us so angry that we become like them, and it is in that sordid territory--and only in that sordid territory--that they can win. The Republicans are so out of touch with average Americans that they have to start wars and declare orange alerts to scare people into voting for them. One of the reasons that I am a Howard Dean supporter is that he knows how to turn anger into hope. Hope is a better emotion than anger, and there really is good reason to hope--Americans are now seeing through George Bush, and they want a better alternative to his incompetence and dishonesty. It's time to channel our energies toward presenting that alternative--and we can't do that if we're focused on contempt.

I do think that liberals need to fight. But you don't necessarily counter a left hook with a left hook. The Republicans would like nothing more than to see us choose our countermeasures poorly. If we're going to Recall Arnold, we have to determine calmly, with plain facts and reason, that it is a sensible part of the overall strategy to achieve our goals. The more I think about, the more I believe a recall effort is more likely to gain us a quick (and cheap) bit of emotional satisfaction. If we channel the energy toward more positive efforts, we may experience much greater satisfaction on November 2, 2004.

I'm going to continue to monitor discussions here and here, but I'm definitely leaning in the anti-recall direction.